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Olympic just posted a new line for their "Blockbuster Matchups":
SWAT -$3 million -115 / Tomb Raider 2 +$3 million -115
This was opened at $2 million, but someone already bet it up to $3. I've contemplated waiting on it and thinking it'll keep going in my favor (analysis coming), but I think I'm gonna go ahead and grab it where it is.
Closest Comparison Movies to SWAT (PSA, competition)
Mod Squad ($3039; None)
Training Day ($8539; Joyride, Zoolander)
Italian Job ($7390; None)
Spy Game ($8043; None)
We Were Soldiers ($6431; None)
Basic ($4003; None)
SWAT won't do as bad as Mod Squad (though it could BE as bad -- this director has never done anything before), but likely won't do as good as Training Day (Denzel, Ethan Hawke, Oscar Buzz) or Spy Game (Redford, Pitt). I think it doing a little bit better than Italian Job is being EXTREMELY generous to it.
Theater count isn't up yet, but I'm guessing in the 2600-2800 range. Lets be generous again and give it a 3000 theater count.
Peg it with a generous $7500 PSA. @ a generous 3000 theater count gives it $22.5 million for opening weekend since it has no competition.
The first Tomb Raider is the best comparison for the second.
Tomb Raider 1 had a $14,281 PSA with a competition of Swordfish.
Tomb Raider 2 is slated at 3000 theaters... Competition will be Bad Boys 2.
$14,281 PSA @ 3000 theaters gives it a whopping $42.8 million.
Now obviously Lara isn't going to have the draw that she did 2 years ago -- but even knocking down the weekend totals of the first one by 50% (which is insane... 30% drop would be huge, 50% just is not gonna happen) gives it $21.4 million.
Tomb Raider 2: $21.4 million (at an insane 50% decrease)
SWAT: $22.5 million (at a generous PSA of $7500 and a generous theater count of 3000)
Add to that Tomb Raider 2 will be PG-13, SWAT likely will be R.
And Tomb Raider 2 is *getting* $3 million? Maybe I'm missing something big, but I say jump on it before someone else notices this huge mismatch.
-Sound of Silence
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Movie Wagering YTD: 16-7, +26.00 units @ 1 unit per play.
PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million vs "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Bad Boys 2" OVER $48 million, -115
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $14 million, +300
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $9 million, +100
PENDING: "Johnny English" OVER $9.5 million, -140
PENDING: "Tomb Raider 2" +$3 million vs "S.W.A.T.", -115
SWAT -$3 million -115 / Tomb Raider 2 +$3 million -115
This was opened at $2 million, but someone already bet it up to $3. I've contemplated waiting on it and thinking it'll keep going in my favor (analysis coming), but I think I'm gonna go ahead and grab it where it is.
Closest Comparison Movies to SWAT (PSA, competition)
Mod Squad ($3039; None)
Training Day ($8539; Joyride, Zoolander)
Italian Job ($7390; None)
Spy Game ($8043; None)
We Were Soldiers ($6431; None)
Basic ($4003; None)
SWAT won't do as bad as Mod Squad (though it could BE as bad -- this director has never done anything before), but likely won't do as good as Training Day (Denzel, Ethan Hawke, Oscar Buzz) or Spy Game (Redford, Pitt). I think it doing a little bit better than Italian Job is being EXTREMELY generous to it.
Theater count isn't up yet, but I'm guessing in the 2600-2800 range. Lets be generous again and give it a 3000 theater count.
Peg it with a generous $7500 PSA. @ a generous 3000 theater count gives it $22.5 million for opening weekend since it has no competition.
The first Tomb Raider is the best comparison for the second.
Tomb Raider 1 had a $14,281 PSA with a competition of Swordfish.
Tomb Raider 2 is slated at 3000 theaters... Competition will be Bad Boys 2.
$14,281 PSA @ 3000 theaters gives it a whopping $42.8 million.
Now obviously Lara isn't going to have the draw that she did 2 years ago -- but even knocking down the weekend totals of the first one by 50% (which is insane... 30% drop would be huge, 50% just is not gonna happen) gives it $21.4 million.
Tomb Raider 2: $21.4 million (at an insane 50% decrease)
SWAT: $22.5 million (at a generous PSA of $7500 and a generous theater count of 3000)
Add to that Tomb Raider 2 will be PG-13, SWAT likely will be R.
And Tomb Raider 2 is *getting* $3 million? Maybe I'm missing something big, but I say jump on it before someone else notices this huge mismatch.
-Sound of Silence
-----
Movie Wagering YTD: 16-7, +26.00 units @ 1 unit per play.
PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million vs "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Bad Boys 2" OVER $48 million, -115
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $14 million, +300
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $9 million, +100
PENDING: "Johnny English" OVER $9.5 million, -140
PENDING: "Tomb Raider 2" +$3 million vs "S.W.A.T.", -115