Adding a movie play 7/18

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Olympic just posted a new line for their "Blockbuster Matchups":

SWAT -$3 million -115 / Tomb Raider 2 +$3 million -115


This was opened at $2 million, but someone already bet it up to $3. I've contemplated waiting on it and thinking it'll keep going in my favor (analysis coming), but I think I'm gonna go ahead and grab it where it is.

Closest Comparison Movies to SWAT (PSA, competition)

Mod Squad ($3039; None)
Training Day ($8539; Joyride, Zoolander)
Italian Job ($7390; None)
Spy Game ($8043; None)
We Were Soldiers ($6431; None)
Basic ($4003; None)


SWAT won't do as bad as Mod Squad (though it could BE as bad -- this director has never done anything before), but likely won't do as good as Training Day (Denzel, Ethan Hawke, Oscar Buzz) or Spy Game (Redford, Pitt). I think it doing a little bit better than Italian Job is being EXTREMELY generous to it.

Theater count isn't up yet, but I'm guessing in the 2600-2800 range. Lets be generous again and give it a 3000 theater count.

Peg it with a generous $7500 PSA. @ a generous 3000 theater count gives it $22.5 million for opening weekend since it has no competition.


The first Tomb Raider is the best comparison for the second.

Tomb Raider 1 had a $14,281 PSA with a competition of Swordfish.

Tomb Raider 2 is slated at 3000 theaters... Competition will be Bad Boys 2.

$14,281 PSA @ 3000 theaters gives it a whopping $42.8 million.

Now obviously Lara isn't going to have the draw that she did 2 years ago -- but even knocking down the weekend totals of the first one by 50% (which is insane... 30% drop would be huge, 50% just is not gonna happen) gives it $21.4 million.

Tomb Raider 2: $21.4 million (at an insane 50% decrease)
SWAT: $22.5 million (at a generous PSA of $7500 and a generous theater count of 3000)

Add to that Tomb Raider 2 will be PG-13, SWAT likely will be R.


And Tomb Raider 2 is *getting* $3 million? Maybe I'm missing something big, but I say jump on it before someone else notices this huge mismatch.



-Sound of Silence

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Movie Wagering YTD: 16-7, +26.00 units @ 1 unit per play.

PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million vs "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Bad Boys 2" OVER $48 million, -115
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $14 million, +300
PENDING: "How to Deal" OVER $9 million, +100
PENDING: "Johnny English" OVER $9.5 million, -140
PENDING: "Tomb Raider 2" +$3 million vs "S.W.A.T.", -115
 
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yeah, I tend to agree with you, but I can also see it goin gthe other way, I'm not sure if I'll hit this one. I'll wait and see how the lines move, I guess. While Tomb Raiders popularity is waning, and the previews for thiw film don't showcase anything besides gunfights and cool stunts, (not that SWAT is anything different,) but, my point is, Tomb Raider 1 had some cool CG effects in it. The new one has CG creatures in it but I'm not seeing them in the TV previews. I'm not sure, but I don;t think the next generation Tomb Raider game that just came out is selling very well, I was just at the computer store and the rack was full of them, and it looked undisturbed. Personally I was dissapointed by the new Tomb Raider trailers. I see both these movies as being potentially mombs or moderate successes, so maybe taking the 3 million is the way to go. There's still that most anticipated ranking, though, that has SWAT quite a bit higher than Tomb Raider. I think a lot of ppeople were let down by the first one, there's no way this one does 40+, which is probably obvious.
 
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I dont' know if it matters, but the new Tomb Raider game wasn't a total dissapointment, it's now the #10 selling PC game. Both these movies look like kinda crappy, but I'm thinking about taking the 3 million.
 

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